The global television industry’s breathless spending splurge is set to slow to a crawl over the next 12 months, as a top UK research group signalled the end of a decade-long content boom.
Ampere Analysis started 2023 with a prediction that worldwide spend on TV content, including sport, would increase just 2% to $243B over the coming year.
Ampere said this would be the slowest rate of growth in 10 years, as streamers and broadcasters rein in budgets. The 2% increase compares with growth of 6% to $238B last year. Spending stood at just $128B in 2013, according to Ampere.
Ampere said economic headwinds would put pressure on household finances and advertising spending, forcing the likes of Netflix and traditional broadcasters to rethink their rampant content investment.
Several senior U.S. execs used recent Content London keynotes to forecast spending cuts, with Showtime Entertainment President Jana Winograde saying “belt tightening is coming.”
Ampere also predicted a shift towards cheaper programming. “Services will continue to focus on original content to compete in a crowded, cost-sensitive market, but we are already seeing a shift in content commissioning to incorporate a greater volume of cheaper unscripted formats,” said Hannah Walsh, a research manager.
Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery will this year overtake Comcast as the two biggest investors in original content, according to Ampere. They will spend $10.5B and $9.5B respectively.